Tariffs Struck Down

While the major economic data released this week caused little reaction, a ruling against tariffs by the Supreme Court was negative for mortgage markets. As a result, rates ended the week slightly higher.

On Friday, the Supreme Court struck down the tariffs imposed last year. It will take some time to see the results of this decision, but the immediate reaction was unfavorable for mortgage rates. Investors are concerned about a potential reduction in government revenue if the tariffs are removed. If not offset, this could increase the budget deficit, causing the government to issue more bonds. An increase in supply would require yields to rise to persuade investors to purchase additional bonds. 

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the broadest measure of economic activity. Delayed by the government shutdown, the report released this week covers the period from October through December, making this data fairly backward-looking. During the fourth quarter of 2025, U.S. GDP grew at an annualized rate of just 1.4%, down sharply from 4.4% in the third quarter, and far below the consensus forecast. This was the lowest reading since the first quarter of 2025. In particular, consumer spending and exports were significantly weaker than in the prior quarter. 

Also delayed by the government shutdown, the latest home building data exceeded expectations. In December, overall housing starts rose 6% from November to the highest level in five months. Single-family housing starts climbed to the best level since February. Building permits, a leading indicator of future construction, increased to the highest level since March. Less encouraging, a separate survey of home builder sentiment on housing market conditions from the NAHB unexpectedly fell and has remained in negative territory below 50 for twenty-two straight months. According to the NAHB, 65% of builders used sales incentives in February and 36% cut prices.

Looking ahead, investors will continue to monitor comments from government officials about tariffs and from Fed officials for hints about future monetary policy. It will be a light week for economic reports. Consumer Confidence will be released on Tuesday. The Producer Price Index (PPI), a monthly inflation indicator, is scheduled for Friday.